Expert Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Tips, Picks

The Jets and Giants continue to compete for the first overall pick in next year’s draft — and also for most popular team to pick against in NFL survivor pools. Week 8 will mark the seventh straight week in which one of those two teams are the opponent of the most popular survivor pick of the week. This week, a total of around 65 percent of survivor pool entries are picking against one the two teams from the Big Apple.

As we do every week, let’s dive in and analyze the five most popular survivor pool picks of NFL Week 8 using the “Holy Trinity” of survivor pick strategy data: Win odds, pick popularity, future value.

This analysis is brought to you by TeamRankings, the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pools. Check out their NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Football Pick ’em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks

To be clear, we are not saying that the first team listed below, Tampa, is the best Week 8 survivor pick for your specific pool(s). We’re telling you that the Buccaneers are the most popular Week 8 pick in survivor pools nationwide. We then break down the major pros and cons of potentially picking them and the next more most popular teams.

To get our specific Week 8 survivor pick recommendations, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product. Using the unique My Pool Picks feature, you first tell us some details about your pool(s) and the teams you’ve picked so far, and the product shows you the best Week 8 picks for all of your survivor pool entries.

Note: Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New York Giants)

Survivor Pick Popularity: 34% (most popular pick)

Point Spread: -10.5

Tampa Bay has become the most popular pick this week, getting the Giants on the road. In most weeks this year, the Bucs would have been the largest favorite of the week, but this week they are a distant second to Kansas City in terms of win odds. With just over 80-percent win odds, though, the Bucs are a solid step up from the next-safest option this week (as of Wednesday, the Eagles).

Tampa Bay also has good future value. They have been rising in our predictive power ratings and are now the third-highest-rated team, behind only Kansas City and Baltimore. The Bucs also rank fourth in our future value estimates, behind KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.

Such high popularity reduces Tampa Bay’s expected valued, though, especially in a week in which a bunch of entries picking Kansas City have a significantly higher win expectation. (The public hasn’t used Tampa Bay as much as it has used Kansas City so far, which explains the Bucs’ rising popularity relative to the Chiefs.)

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. New York Jets)

Survivor Pick Popularity: 31%

Point Spread: -19.5

It’s not often that you can take a team with over 90-percent win odds in NFL survivor pools, but that option exists this week when the top-ranked Chiefs play the last-ranked Jets at home.

Kansas City hasn’t had huge pick popularity in any particular week so far, but the Chiefs have been selected by between nine percent and 13 percent of the public in four different weeks, including a few weeks where a good number of entries not picking KC were eliminated. As a result, about half of all public survivor entries that are still alive have already used the Chiefs. That factor is limiting KC’s popularity, giving them the highest expected value of the week by a sizable margin.

The Chiefs do have very high future value, though the gap is closing between them and other teams, in part because their favorable situation this week is no longer part of the future. How good a choice Kansas City is depends on the specifics of your pool, as in some larger pools holding on to them might still make sense.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota)

Survivor Pick Popularity: 11%

Point Spread: -6.5

Green Bay is the third most popular survivor pick this week when it plays Minnesota at home, a team it has dominated in three games over the past two seasons. Green Bay’s win odds, though, are more than a 20-percent drop from Kansas City and a tier below Tampa Bay, as well.

Green Bay also is fifth in our future value rankings, meaning that using the Packers now in a not-so-obvious spot takes away that option in the future. The Packers get Jacksonville at home in Week 10 when they project as the largest favorite of the week, and they also have good matchups at home against Chicago, Philadelphia, and Carolina in future weeks.

Tennessee Titans (at Cincinnati Bengals)

Survivor Pick Popularity: 10%

Point Spread: -6

The Titans have similar win odds to Green Bay and similar popularity, which makes their expected value for this week in the same range. Tennessee’s future value is not as high as Green Bay’s, though, and for that reason the Titans should be a more attractive pick if you are avoiding Kansas City or Tampa Bay (or don’t have either of those teams available).

Tennessee doesn’t have any clear high-value spots going forward, but it could be a reasonable option in multiple weeks, including next week at home against Chicago.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

Survivor Pick Popularity: 9%

Point Spread: -7.5

A few weeks ago, this game did not look like it would be on the radar as a potential survivor pick consideration, but Dallas has tanked without QB Dak Prescott over the past two games, scoring just 13 points and losing by a combined 50 points against Arizona and Washington.

It’s still not entirely clear just how bad Dallas is without Prescott, but the early returns aren’t promising. That has shot the Eagles up as a larger favorite, and we still don’t know if Dallas backup QB Andy Dalton will be available after a concussion in Week 7.

Philadelphia also has very low future value, which adds to its attractiveness this week. We currently project the Eagles to be an underdog in five of their next six matchups.

Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick ’em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Picks

Get our Week 8 survivor pick for your pool!

Every possible NFL Week 8 survivor pick has an expected value and future value associated with it, and those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your survivor pool.

It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives the biggest boost to your expected survivor pool winnings. That’s exactly why we spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.

We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!

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If you want to dig deeper into some specific topics, you can also check out our full survivor pool strategy guide, where you can learn about things like expected value, future value, different survivor pool rules variations, and how to play multiple entries.

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