Which Premier League team is under-performing most?

Which Premier League team is under-performing most? Opta say 11th is about right for Man United, Chelsea would be flying if they could score, Newcastle should be second… and Spurs are lucky!

  • Opta have released a Premier League table based on expected goals data
  • It has shown which teams are over or under-performing the most this season 
  • Listen to the latest episode of Mail Sport’s podcast ‘It’s All Kicking Off!’ 

Everton should be ahead of Merseyside rivals Liverpool in the Premier League, according to data released by Opta.

With eight games of the campaign having passed, the table is starting to take shape with Tottenham the surprising early season pacesetters, while the three promoted teams and Bournemouth look set to struggle at the foot of the league.

And in new analysis by Opta, they have calculated which teams are over or under-performing the most according to expected goals (xG).

Within the calculations, Everton are supposedly the biggest underperformers in the top flight, with their current 16th place position 11 places worse than their what the statistics say.

They suggest Sean Dyche’s side – who have scored just nine non-penalty goals from a non-penalty xG of 14.92 – should be fifth and one place clear of Liverpool in sixth, who are actually fourth.

Opta have released data which shows which teams are over or under-performing the most 

Everton are the Premier League’s biggest underperformers and should be up in fifth place

Elsewhere, the data suggests that eighth place Newcastle should actually be in second

Meanwhile, the data suggests that Man City should be top rather than third, while league leaders Tottenham are over-performing their statistics by six places.

If Chelsea were able to improve their productivity in front of goal, they would rise from 11th to fourth.

They would be joined in the top four by Newcastle, with Eddie Howe’s side currently eighth, but underperforming their data by six positions.

However, they are on a four-match unbeaten streak and have scored 13 goals and conceded just two during that run.

Manchester United have endured a difficult campaign so far, with the Red Devils having won four and lost four of their top flight matches, while they are also bottom of their Champions League group following defeats to Bayern Munich and Galatasaray.

However, Opta says their current position in 10th is about right, with data suggesting they should in fact be 11th.  

Elsewhere, Brentford are currently on a run of eight games without a win in all competitions, but the evidence suggests Thomas Frank’s side should be in eighth rather than 15th.

Tottenham are first, but statistics say they should be seventh, while Man United’s position of 10th is about right, with it even suggested they should be one place lower in 11th

If Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea were more clinical, they would rise from 11th to the top four

West Ham have built on their Europa Conference League triumph from last season and are riding high in seventh, but the Hammers are overperforming by seven places.

Burnley, Bournemouth and Sheffield United, along with 13th placed Nottingham Forest are the only teams who are in their ‘rightful’ places, according to the data. 

However, 17th place Luton Town should be up in 15th, while Wolves are overperforming by three places and would be teetering on the brink of the drop zone.

Finally, Aston Villa and Brighton – who are both battling European commitments – currently lie ninth and 10th respectively, but they would be expected to rise by four places according to Opta’s work.  

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