Inside Mail and Best Bets for Grafton Monday

GRAFTON

BEST BET

Race 9 No. 7: The Lioness

Her grandfather is Octagonal, her grandmother left us Northerly. This Gold Coaster should have won at Lismore first-up. Stick solid.

NEXT BEST

Race 8 No. 1; Moringa’s Amordoro

Sparingly-raced five-year-old trained here; both runs are here, won one, second at the other then spelled. Can’t fault him to this point.

VALUE

Race 1 No. 10: Love A Diamond

Resumes in a winnable race and she looks in good shape too judging on that easy trial win here 15-days back.

QUADDIE

Race 7; 1,4,5,7

Race 8: 1,3,9

Race 9: 7

Race 10: 2,6,7,10,12

*****

RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

RACE 1

Love A Diamond has raced five times and each one has been better than last. Trainer Dwayne Schmidt has found the perfect race for the grey to resume in and she does so off a booming trial win here at home 15-days ago. First starters Tabulam and Braw Bricht Moon both looked good in their respectable trials but in the latter’s case, it was back on December 3 last year. Market watch essential with most of these.

Bet: Love A Diamond win, box quinella 4,9,10

RACE 2

Shelled has raced 12 times for a win and five placings and even when she doesn’t medal, she is invariably around the money. Shelled ran into a handy and in-form mare last start when runner-up to Santa Margherita at Moree. Handles the slop. Above The Lot is another one who gets through the wet and comes off a very impressive win here. Freshened-up for the 1425m today. Flying Pretty is going well this campaign.

Bet: Shelled win, quinella 3,4

RACE 3

Group Think brings together the dynamic duo of Edward O’Rourke and Ben Looker whom most punters will be hoping can add another to their collective tally here. The son of So You Think is bang on to break a sequence of four placings and one fourth this in the ideal race today. Daring Man was an easy winner at the Sunshine Coast 15-days ago. Has acted on Soft tracks. Marecat less so, but her recent form is good enough to figure.

Bet: Group Think win

RACE 4

Fergus En Marche is winless after 15 starts but this could be the day for the Brett Bellamy trained gelding to get one on the board in what is a pretty skinny race even by maiden plate standards. Take note that Fergus En Marche has raced at the track/distance three times for two thirds and both were huge runs! King Farouk gets his chance to race prominently from the (2) gate. Nature Boy is a very fit horse who will run the trip.

Bet: Fergus En Marche win

RACE 5

Patriot and The Drake both call Port Macquarie home but were originally housed at the top and bottom of High Street at Randwick. Both geldings have been terrific for their (new) camps and arrive here in fantastic shape. Patriot is a last start winner over this trip beating The Drake that afternoon by a length. The Drake will be peaking third-up but Patriot is racing almost at his best level ever. Kievann and Heaven’s High are players.

Bet: Patriot win, exacta 1,3

RACE 6

Admiral Ash is on target for an overdue but nonetheless well earned win. The Neil Godbolt trained gelding has placed at four of his 12 starts has probably only run two, maybe three, outright poor races in all that time. Percontation was 451 into $26 first-up and ran accordingly, finishing third, albeit a distant one at Coffs but to a couple of handy types. Reachforthestars has placed at half of her six runs in Queensland. Go well here.

Bet: Admiral Ash win

RACE 7

Dha Dha Choc was $5.50 into $4.80 at his first career run here in an 1106m maiden on March 2. He wasn’t an old-fashioned ‘certainty beaten’ but you could make a case that to say that he probably should have won. John Shelton mare Stars Are Trumps has been a wee-bit costly to follow but she has placed at five of 11 starts. No reason why she won’t get another chance to breakthrough today. Angels landing ran a big race at the Gold Coast one day.

Bet: Dha Dha Choc win, exacta 1 to beat 7, quinella 1,7

RACE 8

Moringa’s Amordoro is a late starter when it comes to racing; he made his debut on August 31 having turned five at the beginning of the month. The Shane Everson trained chestnut certainly made an impression too, winning easily. Runner-up here the next start then spelled. Trial was good enough. Time To Target ran fifth on debut and has gone ‘22331’ in her five starts since. Drew 1 when she won her maiden and has drawn 1 for her Class 1 today.

Bet: Moringa’s Amordoro win, box trifecta 1,3,5,9

RACE 9

The Lioness, a relation to both Northerly and Octagonal, won on debut at Forbes on August 3 when Mitchell Beer had her. The next time we saw the Exosphere filly at Lismore on February 9 under the new management of Toby and Trent Edmonds. Long story short, she should have won – just beat herself on the day. La Cronica is a local with a bit of talent and seemingly has a fan in Ben Looker. Perfect Quality has placed two from three fresh runs.

Bet: The Lioness win

RACE 10

Hurricane Max has only won 3 of his 33 starts but he is a pretty consistent horse. His prospects may well rely on how much the Grafton track improves throughout the day given that his Soft/heavy numbers seem a little indifferent. Bondurant has only raced four times and/but is already ‘one for one’ at Grafton. Great Marlow was only beaten 3-lengths in the NRRA Country Championship Heat at Coffs two starts back.

Bet: Hurricane Max each-way

Originally published asGrafton tips: Group Think the one for O’Rourke

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