Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas is confident a promising three-year-old filly from the powerful Chris Waller stable can get the day off to a winning start.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!



Race 1, No. 5: SUR LA MER

Was a certainty beaten on debut when second at Newcastle earlier this month. She was held up for a run in the straight and when finally clear, finished powerfully to just miss. Smart filly suited by the small field and slightly longer trip.


Race 5, No. 1: FALCON

Falcon has drawn off the track but he has good gate speed and should be able to zoom across early and settle on speed. He is dropping back slightly in trip but gets the firm track he enjoys.


Race 7, No. 6: GOOD STOCK

Good Stock led throughout and was strong through the line to score at Newcastle when resuming over 1400m. He has an outside barrier here but he will roll forward and put himself into the race. Hard to beat again.


Race 4: 1,2,7

Race 5: 1,3,7

Race 6: 1,3,4,8

Race 7: 1,6,7,8,9

Talented apprentice Campbell Rawiller has a number of good rides at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Photo: Natasha Morello/Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images


Emerging apprentice Campbell Rawiller has four good chances to record his first Sydney winner – Miss Maz (race 2), Zell (race 4), Tudor Music (race 5) and Willowheart (race 6).


The Peter and Paul Snowden stable have winning chances in three races – Billiondollarbaby (race 2), King High (race 3), Falcon and Close To Me (race 5).



Sur La Mer was desperately unlucky on debut when second to stablemate Pretty Elsa at Newcastle. Sur La Mer drew an inside barrier and settled in behind the leader with what appeared to be the run of the race until the top of the straight where she struck trouble. Her rider had to switch course a couple of times before eventually finding a gap between runners and the filly charged through to just miss. The step up to 1300m will suit and she just needs even luck in running. How Do You Sleep has been placed twice at the provincials, finishing strongly both times and the extra distance suits here. Supremo has drawn the outside barrier but can work across and settle on speed. He will take running down. Light Up My World will be doing her best work on the line.

Bet: Sur La Mer to win


Billiondollarbaby raced up to her $1 million price tag from the Easter Sale last year with a professional debut effort at Canterbury. She jumped straight to the front, led throughout and comfortably held off the promising Port Louis to win by a length with the rest of the chasing pack more than four lengths behind the winner. She has drawn a touch awkwardly but has the tactical speed to get into the right position early. In a race with plenty of depth, she is the one to beat. Miss Maz and Bella Rouge are both well-bred first-starters who have trialled impressively. Shihonka absolutely bolted in at Gosford in a 1000m trial earlier this month and has the rails barrier to suit her. Your Too Good and Hoover Lucy shaped promisingly on debut at Hawkesbury behind boom filly De An Andretti.

Bet: Billiondollarbaby to win, saver on Shihonka who is over the odds

Trainers Peter and Paul Snowden prepare promising filly Billiondollarbaby who is looking to make it two from two on Wednesday. Photo: Simon Bullard/AAP ImageSource:AAP


With topweight Gleneagles being saved for the Clarendon Stakes at Hawkesbury on Saturday, I’m leaning to Capital Reign. He won on debut at Canberra by a comfortable margin despite running about when well clear in the straight. Capital Reign went back to the trials and went gun-barrel straight winning by nearly eight lengths. He gets the home track advantage and will take catching. King High was tested in his Randwick trial last week but did stretch out generously winning by five lengths and looks an improver. American President and Overpass fought out the finish of the Silver Apple at Bathurst and good each way chances.

BET: Box trifecta 2,3,5,11


The Move is an interesting runner from the Brisbane stables of leading trainer Tony Gollan who has been sent to Sydney to find a dry track. The last time he was on a good track he broke 1m 3s for 1100m around Ipswich and romped home by more than six lengths. He will be hard to catch around this course and distance. Shadow Crush didn’t run on as expected at Canterbury but he is third-up on Wednesday and should be ready to strike form. Disruptor is resuming off a long spell but he’s a promising sprinter and did trial well last week. Key Largo showed promise when last in work but might need this run.

Bet: The Move to win

James McDonald is a good chance for consecutive winners with The Move in race 4 and Falcon in Race 5 at Warwick Farm. Photo: Mark Evans/Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images


Falcon is a promising young sprinter and I still want to be with him despite his wide draw and 61kg topweight. He led for a long way at Gosford when resuming before being worn down by the race-fit Seleque. Falcon has since won a Randwick trial will appreciate the firmer track. He just needs a luck in running early. Resilient Star was dominant at Hawkesbury when resuming, recording a fast overall time and a blistering closing 600m sectional. He will be in the finish. Close To Me won easily at Canberra before successive seconds at the provincials behind smart types. She is going really well this preparation and is at very generous odds. Midland has been freshened since his easy Wyong win in early March but he has had two barrier trials between runs.

Bet: Falcon to win, saver on Resilient Star at each way odds


Juan Diva’s unplaced run at Hawkesbury last start was a horror watch for her backers. She is still trying to get out behind a wall of runners in the straight, going to the line untested. She was also unlucky at her previous start on his track when runner-up to Salina Dreaming. I’m sticking with Juan Diva although her rider James McDonald has switched to Strawb. This mare is resuming on Wednesday but her recent trials wins at Newcastle indicate she is in very good touch. Willowheart looked home at Canterbury first-up only to be collared right on the line. She will be fitter for that run. They don’t trial any better than Turnstyle did at Hawkesbury last week.

Bet: Quinella 3,4

Golden Slipper-winning trainers Richard (left) and Michael (right) Freedman have a good chance in Juan Diva in Race 6. Photo by Mark Evans/Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images


Good Stock led throughout and scored with authority when resuming at Newcastle. This is a stronger race but he did win second-up over 1400m here when last in work. He should be able to find the front on Wednesday and will take running down again. Mightybeel ran on well from back in the field when second at Hawkesbury and she looks well placed here. Travest’s two career wins have been on his home track and he has steadily worked his way back into form this campaign. Blaze A Trail will appreciate getting to 1600m, Shibli and White Boots are big improvers.

Bet: Box trifecta 1,6,7,8,9

Originally published asWarwick Farm tips: Sur La Mer to make a splash

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